Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$3.5K
-$117.34
52.1¢ → 54.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Underavg 51¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$114.68 | 50% 218-221 (439) |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $856.45 | $977.47 | +$121.02 | 50% 1138-1132 (2270) |
 ComingBack | Underavg 54¢ | $1.0K | $879.63 | -$120.37 | 61% 3850-2418 (6268) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $20.67 | $18.88 | -$1.79 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $17.84 | $16.62 | -$1.22 | 57% 13139-10017 (23156) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $5.37 | $4.81 | -$0.56 | 58% 40754-29472 (70226) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.77 | $3.03 | +$0.26 | 58% 28122-20727 (48849) |
Invested
$1,670.98
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$114.68
Record
50%
218-221 (439)
Invested
$856.45
Value
$977.47
PnL
+$121.02
Record
50%
1138-1132 (2270)
ComingBackInvested
$1,000
Value
$879.63
PnL
-$120.37
Record
61%
3850-2418 (6268)
Invested
$20.67
Value
$18.88
PnL
-$1.79
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$17.84
Value
$16.62
PnL
-$1.22
Record
57%
13139-10017 (23156)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$5.37
Value
$4.81
PnL
-$0.56
Record
58%
40754-29472 (70226)
Invested
$2.77
Value
$3.03
PnL
+$0.26
Record
58%
28122-20727 (48849)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.