Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 87¢ · $372 held · ends Oct 28

Over87¢Under13¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$372.24

Combined PnL

$18.13

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 86.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over87%

Under14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$273.23

Total Shares292

Combined PnL+$10.69

Under3 traders

Total Value$99.01

Total Shares765

Combined PnL+$7.44

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 87¢	$135.18	$140.62	+$5.44	65% 1665-897 (2562)
CA Cannae	Overavg 87¢	$127.37	$132.61	+$5.25	53% 15741-13910 (29651)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$79.07	$88.95	+$9.88	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$10.28	$8.14	-$2.14	50% 32772-32329 (65101)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$2.22	$1.92	-$0.3	57% 13139-10016 (23155)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$135.18

Value

$140.62

PnL

+$5.44

Record

65%

1665-897 (2562)

Cannae

Over

Invested

$127.37

Value

$132.61

PnL

+$5.25

Record

53%

15741-13910 (29651)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$79.07

Value

$88.95

PnL

+$9.88

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.28

Value

$8.14

PnL

-$2.14

Record

50%

32772-32329 (65101)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.22

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$0.3

Record

57%

13139-10016 (23155)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.