Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 0.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 95¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 71%
$4.1K
$12.97
97.3¢ → 94.7¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 97.3¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | -$32.65 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 2.6¢ | $89.83 | $134.96 | +$45.12 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 97.5¢ | $41.93 | $41.92 | -$0.04 | 58% 28123-20732 (48855) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 97.3¢ | $12.54 | $12.45 | -$0.1 | 57% 13143-10017 (23160) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 97.1¢ | $10.68 | $10.62 | -$0.06 | 54% 55721-47803 (103524) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 97.3¢ | $7.79 | $7.73 | -$0.06 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Underavg 2.2¢ | $2.56 | $3.32 | +$0.76 | 63% 1075-624 (1699) |
Invested
$3,925.48
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$32.65
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Invested
$89.83
Value
$134.96
PnL
+$45.12
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$41.93
Value
$41.92
PnL
-$0.04
Record
58%
28123-20732 (48855)
Invested
$12.54
Value
$12.45
PnL
-$0.1
Record
57%
13143-10017 (23160)
RN1<$100Invested
$10.68
Value
$10.62
PnL
-$0.06
Record
54%
55721-47803 (103524)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.79
Value
$7.73
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
Invested
$2.56
Value
$3.32
PnL
+$0.76
Record
63%
1075-624 (1699)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.