Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (98%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Venezia FC O/U 0.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 2.0¢ · $195 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 63%
$194.76
-$17.14
51.4¢ → 2¢
-96% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 50.7¢ | $80.13 | $141.43 | +$61.3 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 49.1¢ | $96.24 | $13.71 | -$82.52 | 50% 32789-32345 (65134) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 7.7¢ | $1.23 | $10.72 | +$9.49 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $7.46 | $8.4 | +$0.93 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $8.48 | $7.92 | -$0.56 | 59% 30098-20824 (50922) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 64.5¢ | $16.77 | $6.44 | -$1.89 | 57% 13150-10021 (23171) |
RO Rocky31CTR<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $8.37 | $4.5 | -$3.87 | 73% 1485-544 (2029) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 82.9¢ | $1.67 | $1.64 | -$0.03 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
Invested
$80.13
Value
$141.43
PnL
+$61.3
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$96.24
Value
$13.71
PnL
-$82.52
Record
50%
32789-32345 (65134)
poshposh<$100Invested
$1.23
Value
$10.72
PnL
+$9.49
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
Invested
$7.46
Value
$8.4
PnL
+$0.93
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
Invested
$8.48
Value
$7.92
PnL
-$0.56
Record
59%
30098-20824 (50922)
Invested
$16.77
Value
$6.44
PnL
-$1.89
Record
57%
13150-10021 (23171)
Invested
$8.37
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$3.87
Record
73%
1485-544 (2029)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.67
Value
$1.64
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.