Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: FC Internazionale Milano O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $557 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$556.67
$225.02
47.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 46.2¢ | $234.5 | $454.16 | +$219.66 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $37.61 | $37.63 | +$0.02 | 99% 12680-184 (12864) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 73.4¢ | $28.62 | $33.54 | +$4.92 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 40.6¢ | $25 | $19.71 | -$5.28 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 25.7¢ | $5.92 | $11.63 | +$5.71 | 57% 13150-10021 (23171) |
Invested
$234.5
Value
$454.16
PnL
+$219.66
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$37.61
Value
$37.63
PnL
+$0.02
Record
99%
12680-184 (12864)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$28.62
Value
$33.54
PnL
+$4.92
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
poshposh<$100Invested
$25
Value
$19.71
PnL
-$5.28
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
Invested
$5.92
Value
$11.63
PnL
+$5.71
Record
57%
13150-10021 (23171)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.