Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: FC Internazionale Milano O/U 0.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$117.15

Smart Money Entry

18.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares5,237

Combined PnL+$115.68

Over2 traders

Total Value$532.4

Total Shares536

Combined PnL+$1.47

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 16.7¢	$297.98	$661.7	+$363.72	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$525.78	$526.05	+$0.26	99% 12680-184 (12864)
FO forecastication4CTR	Underavg 5.5¢	$20.49	$184.88	+$164.39	49% 1127-1157 (2284)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 21.1¢	$75.78	$175.8	+$100.02	50% 12125-12330 (24455)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 5.3¢	$2.73	$26	+$23.27	57% 13150-10021 (23171)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 21.4¢	$565.69	$21.8	-$543.89	50% 32789-32345 (65134)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$5.25	$12.38	+$7.13	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$6.9	$9.15	+$2.25	47% 4449-4924 (9373)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 51¢	$5.14	$6.35	+$1.21	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$4.94	$3.73	-$1.21	49% 18616-19046 (37662)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$297.98

Value

$661.7

PnL

+$363.72

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$525.78

Value

$526.05

PnL

+$0.26

Record

99%

12680-184 (12864)

forecastication4CTR

Under

Invested

$20.49

Value

$184.88

PnL

+$164.39

Record

49%

1127-1157 (2284)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$75.78

Value

$175.8

PnL

+$100.02

Record

50%

12125-12330 (24455)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.73

Value

$26

PnL

+$23.27

Record

57%

13150-10021 (23171)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$565.69

Value

$21.8

PnL

-$543.89

Record

50%

32789-32345 (65134)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.25

Value

$12.38

PnL

+$7.13

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.9

Value

$9.15

PnL

+$2.25

Record

47%

4449-4924 (9373)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$5.14

Value

$6.35

PnL

+$1.21

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.94

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$1.21

Record

49%

18616-19046 (37662)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.