Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-3.5)
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Venezia FC (56%) · Venezia FC at 99¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Venezia FC
9
Venezia FC 56%
$4.5K
-$176.43
95.9¢ → 99¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralVenezia FC at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Venezia FCavg 94.8¢ | $3.0K | $2.7K | -$212.2 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
UP UpTheBlues | Venezia FCavg 98.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$8.84 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
AN Anon455 | Venezia FCavg 93¢ | $232.5 | $240 | +$7.5 | 56% 2628-2079 (4707) |
 poshposh | Venezia FCavg 97.8¢ | $152.64 | $152.4 | -$0.25 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Venezia FCavg 97.2¢ | $77.7 | $79.12 | +$1.42 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 8¢ | $12.48 | $28.08 | +$15.6 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 12¢ | $3.51 | $5.26 | +$1.75 | 57% 13150-10021 (23171) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 0.2¢ | $0.22 | $1.1 | +$0.88 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 16¢ | $0.19 | $0.21 | +$0.02 | 50% 32789-32345 (65134) |
Invested
$2,953
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$212.2
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Invested
$1,284.1
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$8.84
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$232.5
Value
$240
PnL
+$7.5
Record
56%
2628-2079 (4707)
poshposhInvested
$152.64
Value
$152.4
PnL
-$0.25
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$77.7
Value
$79.12
PnL
+$1.42
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Invested
$12.48
Value
$28.08
PnL
+$15.6
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$5.26
PnL
+$1.75
Record
57%
13150-10021 (23171)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.22
Value
$1.1
PnL
+$0.88
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.21
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
32789-32345 (65134)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
GoalLineGhost
Venezia FC — $2.7K
UpTheBlues
Venezia FC — $1.3K
Anon455
Venezia FC — $240
poshposh
Venezia FC — $152.4
HRTrading
Venezia FC — $79.12
foooool
CTRFC Internazionale Milano — $28.08
ghorrock
CTRFC Internazionale Milano — $5.26
RN1
CTRFC Internazionale Milano — $1.1
SnakeBall
CTRFC Internazionale Milano — $0.21