Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Venezia FC (67%) · Venezia FC at 70¢ · $505 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Venezia FC
3
Venezia FC 67%
1 arb excluded
$504.54
$1.61
70¢ → 70¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralVenezia FC at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Venezia FCavg 70¢ | $350 | $350 | +$0 | 58% 40728-29460 (70188) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 30¢ | $98.07 | $98.07 | +$1.63 | 50% 6790-6820 (13610) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Venezia FCavg 70¢ | $52.19 | $53 | +$0.41 | 58% 28094-20712 (48806) |
| └ Venezia FC leg | Venezia FCavg 70¢ | $28.7 | $28.7 | +$0 | |
| └ FC Internazionale Milano leg | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 29¢ | $23.49 | $24.3 | +$0.41 | |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Venezia FCavg 70¢ | $5 | $3.48 | -$0.03 | 47% 2037-2339 (4376) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$350
Value
$350
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
40728-29460 (70188)
Invested
$98.07
Value
$98.07
PnL
+$1.63
Record
50%
6790-6820 (13610)
Invested
$52.19
Value
$53
PnL
+$0.41
Record
58%
28094-20712 (48806)
Both legs:
Invested
$5
Value
$3.48
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
2037-2339 (4376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.