Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FC Internazionale Milano (17%) · FC Internazionale Milano at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
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Neutral
FC Internazionale Milano
6
FC Internazionale Milano 17%
$3.5K
$18.03
Research grade
NeutralFC Internazionale Milano at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 50¢ | $608.5 | $1.8K | +$17.59 | — |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Venezia FCavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$0 | 53% 5485-4833 (10318) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Venezia FCavg 49.5¢ | $495 | $495 | +$0 | 58% 40677-29411 (70088) |
CA CannaeCTR | Venezia FCavg 50¢ | $115.6 | $115.6 | +$0 | 53% 15721-13896 (29617) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Venezia FCavg 49¢ | $41.16 | $41.58 | +$0.42 | 58% 28040-20670 (48710) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Venezia FCavg 49.5¢ | $26.82 | $26.84 | +$0.02 | 57% 13017-9926 (22943) |
nigiri99Invested
$608.5
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$17.59
Record
—
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5485-4833 (10318)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$495
Value
$495
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
40677-29411 (70088)
Invested
$115.6
Value
$115.6
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15721-13896 (29617)
Invested
$41.16
Value
$41.58
PnL
+$0.42
Record
58%
28040-20670 (48710)
Invested
$26.82
Value
$26.84
PnL
+$0.02
Record
57%
13017-9926 (22943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.