Venezia FC leading at halftime?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$2.4K
$192.55
88.2¢ → 100¢
+13% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 88.1¢ | $975.25 | $1.1K | +$95.86 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 88.4¢ | $846.08 | $953.73 | +$107.65 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 88¢ | $369.75 | $359.24 | -$10.5 | 50% 32789-32345 (65134) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $37.13 | $39.48 | +$2.35 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $4.58 | $14.24 | +$9.66 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $4.02 | $6.09 | +$2.07 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $14.62 | $0.08 | -$14.54 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
Invested
$975.25
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$95.86
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Invested
$846.08
Value
$953.73
PnL
+$107.65
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$369.75
Value
$359.24
PnL
-$10.5
Record
50%
32789-32345 (65134)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$37.13
Value
$39.48
PnL
+$2.35
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Invested
$4.58
Value
$14.24
PnL
+$9.66
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
poshposh<$100Invested
$4.02
Value
$6.09
PnL
+$2.07
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$14.62
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$14.54
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.