FC Internazionale Milano leading at halftime?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$1.6K
$351.39
50.2¢ → 100¢
+99% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 44.5¢ | $722.5 | $806.08 | +$103.58 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
 RN1 | Noavg 67.6¢ | $391.16 | $578.37 | +$187.21 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 43.4¢ | $119.43 | $140.25 | +$20.82 | 58% 28125-20732 (48857) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 51.8¢ | $47.72 | $85.74 | +$38.02 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $17.26 | $16.68 | -$0.58 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $2.16 | $4.5 | +$2.34 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$722.5
Value
$806.08
PnL
+$103.58
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
RN1Invested
$391.16
Value
$578.37
PnL
+$187.21
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$119.43
Value
$140.25
PnL
+$20.82
Record
58%
28125-20732 (48857)
Invested
$47.72
Value
$85.74
PnL
+$38.02
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
poshposh<$100Invested
$17.26
Value
$16.68
PnL
-$0.58
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.16
Value
$4.5
PnL
+$2.34
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.