Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: 1st Half O/U 1.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$720.84

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,254

Combined PnL+$713.48

Over3 traders

Total Value$98.38

Total Shares204

Combined PnL+$7.36

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 90.4¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$206.33	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
RN1	Underavg 68.2¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$523.3	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 50.6¢	$140.12	$139.86	-$0.26	54% 4810-4044 (8854)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$87.36	$90.09	+$2.73	50% 6813-6827 (13640)
RO Rocko33<$100	Underavg 80¢	$20	$12.63	-$7.38	64% 997-567 (1564)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 88¢	$20	$11.48	-$8.52	67% 23111-11517 (34628)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$2.01	$8.29	+$6.28	50% 12125-12330 (24455)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$1.65	$0	-$1.65	60% 9388-6379 (15767)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,075.5

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$206.33

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,121.88

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$523.3

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$140.12

Value

$139.86

PnL

-$0.26

Record

54%

4810-4044 (8854)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$87.36

Value

$90.09

PnL

+$2.73

Record

50%

6813-6827 (13640)

Rocko33<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$12.63

PnL

-$7.38

Record

64%

997-567 (1564)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$8.52

Record

67%

23111-11517 (34628)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.01

Value

$8.29

PnL

+$6.28

Record

50%

12125-12330 (24455)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.65

Value

PnL

-$1.65

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.