Exact Score: Venezia FC 1 - 3 FC Internazionale Milano?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$10.0K
-$944.17
92.8¢ → 99.6¢
+7% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 91.7¢ | $6.0K | $6.0K | -$45.64 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 95.1¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$151.14 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $1.1K | $523.53 | -$405.88 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 93¢ | $665.88 | $365.16 | -$300.72 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $66.72 | $37.39 | -$29.33 | 57% 13150-10021 (23171) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $24.57 | $13.77 | -$10.8 | 58% 28125-20732 (48857) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $9.4 | $9.53 | +$0.13 | 51% 1285-1225 (2510) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $1.82 | $1.02 | -$0.8 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
RN1Invested
$6,013.62
Value
$6.0K
PnL
-$45.64
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$3,241.85
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$151.14
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,089
Value
$523.53
PnL
-$405.88
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
Invested
$665.88
Value
$365.16
PnL
-$300.72
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
Invested
$66.72
Value
$37.39
PnL
-$29.33
Record
57%
13150-10021 (23171)
Invested
$24.57
Value
$13.77
PnL
-$10.8
Record
58%
28125-20732 (48857)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.53
PnL
+$0.13
Record
51%
1285-1225 (2510)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.82
Value
$1.02
PnL
-$0.8
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.