Exact Score: Venezia FC 1 - 2 FC Internazionale Milano?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$1.8K
-$98.48
90¢ → 92.8¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 91.3¢ | $832.25 | $828.72 | -$3.53 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
 RN1 | Noavg 89¢ | $809.09 | $827.27 | +$18.18 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 89¢ | $233.21 | $131.39 | -$99.99 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $19.8 | $22.39 | +$2.59 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $22.5 | $12.63 | -$9.88 | 58% 28125-20732 (48857) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $17.14 | $9.62 | -$7.52 | 50% 32789-32345 (65134) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.94 | $3.59 | +$1.66 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
Invested
$832.25
Value
$828.72
PnL
-$3.53
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
RN1Invested
$809.09
Value
$827.27
PnL
+$18.18
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
VeryLucky888Invested
$233.21
Value
$131.39
PnL
-$99.99
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
poshposh<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$22.39
PnL
+$2.59
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$12.63
PnL
-$9.88
Record
58%
28125-20732 (48857)
Invested
$17.14
Value
$9.62
PnL
-$7.52
Record
50%
32789-32345 (65134)
Invested
$1.94
Value
$3.59
PnL
+$1.66
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.