Exact Score: Venezia FC 1 - 0 FC Internazionale Milano?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$3.4K
-$90.21
95.7¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $2.6K | $2.5K | -$77.29 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
ZX zxc368 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $811.87 | $812.27 | +$0.41 | 99% 12680-184 (12864) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $89.73 | $85.37 | -$4.36 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $12.21 | $13.23 | +$1.03 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.66 | $9.08 | -$1.58 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $17.45 | $9.04 | -$8.41 | 57% 13150-10021 (23171) |
RN1Invested
$2,568.65
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$77.29
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$811.87
Value
$812.27
PnL
+$0.41
Record
99%
12680-184 (12864)
Invested
$89.73
Value
$85.37
PnL
-$4.36
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$12.21
Value
$13.23
PnL
+$1.03
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.66
Value
$9.08
PnL
-$1.58
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Invested
$17.45
Value
$9.04
PnL
-$8.41
Record
57%
13150-10021 (23171)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.