Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Venezia FC 0 - 2 FC Internazionale Milano?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 29¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 50%
$1.7K
$874.78
91.2¢ → 29¢
-68% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Yesavg 12.7¢ | $206.9 | $1.2K | +$964.53 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Noavg 90¢ | $401.71 | $225.4 | -$176.3 | 49% 1127-1157 (2284) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $44.28 | $152.49 | +$108.21 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
RO Rocky31CTR | Noavg 96.8¢ | $100.02 | $88.86 | -$11.17 | 73% 1485-544 (2029) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $32.55 | $36.55 | +$3.99 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $32.99 | $18.51 | -$14.48 | 57% 13150-10021 (23171) |
RN1Invested
$206.9
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$964.53
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$401.71
Value
$225.4
PnL
-$176.3
Record
49%
1127-1157 (2284)
Invested
$44.28
Value
$152.49
PnL
+$108.21
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$100.02
Value
$88.86
PnL
-$11.17
Record
73%
1485-544 (2029)
Invested
$32.55
Value
$36.55
PnL
+$3.99
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
Invested
$32.99
Value
$18.51
PnL
-$14.48
Record
57%
13150-10021 (23171)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.