Exact Score: Venezia FC 0 - 0 FC Internazionale Milano?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
$3.7K
$2.5K
84¢ → 100¢
+19% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 83.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$44.91 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $744.68 | $1.7K | +$946.02 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
SU sugar-superCTR | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $3.0K | $76.5 | -$16.5 | 53% 371-335 (706) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $87.03 | $70.56 | -$16.47 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $26.87 | $26.89 | +$0.01 | 99% 12680-184 (12864) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $23.73 | $24.75 | +$1.02 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $9.99 | $9.59 | -$0.4 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $12.09 | $3.93 | -$8.16 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Noavg 71.8¢ | $4.04 | $3.19 | -$0.85 | 64% 997-567 (1564) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $124.09 | $2.26 | +$1.7K | 50% 32789-32345 (65134) |
RN1Invested
$1,836.7
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$44.91
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$744.68
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$946.02
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$2,999.99
Value
$76.5
PnL
-$16.5
Record
53%
371-335 (706)
poshposh<$100Invested
$87.03
Value
$70.56
PnL
-$16.47
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
Invested
$26.87
Value
$26.89
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
12680-184 (12864)
Invested
$23.73
Value
$24.75
PnL
+$1.02
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.59
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Invested
$12.09
Value
$3.93
PnL
-$8.16
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$3.19
PnL
-$0.85
Record
64%
997-567 (1564)
Invested
$124.09
Value
$2.26
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
50%
32789-32345 (65134)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.