Will Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?

11 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (52%) · No at 100¢ · $33K held · ended Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 52%

Total Value

$33.3K

Combined PnL

$734.53

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 99.6¢

+37% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 21 top traders (52%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$30.8K

Total Shares33,853

Combined PnL+$460.57

Yes10 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,966

Combined PnL+$273.96

No — 52%Yes — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 70.7¢	$8.3K	$10.2K	+$1.8K	56% 2628-2079 (4707)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 84.7¢	$9.7K	$5.8K	$-3.9K	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
TO torta.tech	Noavg 88¢	$5.7K	$5.7K	-$32.39	63% 7978-4771 (12749)
RN1	Noavg 54.3¢	$2.0K	$3.6K	+$1.6K	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
oieshfn345	Noavg 66.3¢	$2.1K	$3.0K	+$966.02	57% 1626-1210 (2836)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 55.3¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$83.18	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 16¢	$480	$1.4K	+$315	58% 40784-29493 (70277)
MY myxiCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$661	$610.71	-$50.29	68% 338-159 (497)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 79.5¢	$386.38	$482.51	+$96.14	52% 13567-12407 (25974)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Yesavg 32.7¢	$147.78	$223.74	+$75.96	58% 18407-13505 (31912)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 16.8¢	$212.93	$158.82	-$54.11	49% 18616-19046 (37662)
RO Rocky31	Noavg 92¢	$124.35	$131.78	+$7.43	73% 1485-544 (2029)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$85.97	$85.97	-$0	50% 219-221 (440)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 52¢	$44.97	$44.54	-$0.43	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$23.49	$26.98	+$3.49	54% 6048-5126 (11174)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 99¢	$35.66	$23.36	+$5.3	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$10.4	$13.25	+$2.85	51% 1285-1225 (2510)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$2.83	$11.69	+$8.86	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$10.99	$7.99	-$3	52% 5878-5516 (11394)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$2.24	$2.24	+$0	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$21.97	$0.66	-$21.31	62% 13616-8455 (22071)

Anon455

Invested

$8,347.24

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

56%

2628-2079 (4707)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$9,740.88

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

torta.tech

Invested

$5,699.76

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$32.39

Record

63%

7978-4771 (12749)

RN1

Invested

$2,009.66

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

oieshfn345

Invested

$2,055.58

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$966.02

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,955.21

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$83.18

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$480

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$315

Record

58%

40784-29493 (70277)

myxiCTR

Yes

Invested

$661

Value

$610.71

PnL

-$50.29

Record

68%

338-159 (497)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$386.38

Value

$482.51

PnL

+$96.14

Record

52%

13567-12407 (25974)

BillBenter2026CTR

Yes

Invested

$147.78

Value

$223.74

PnL

+$75.96

Record

58%

18407-13505 (31912)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$212.93

Value

$158.82

PnL

-$54.11

Record

49%

18616-19046 (37662)

Rocky31

Invested

$124.35

Value

$131.78

PnL

+$7.43

Record

73%

1485-544 (2029)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.97

Value

$85.97

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

219-221 (440)

foooool<$100

Invested

$44.97

Value

$44.54

PnL

-$0.43

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$23.49

Value

$26.98

PnL

+$3.49

Record

54%

6048-5126 (11174)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$35.66

Value

$23.36

PnL

+$5.3

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.4

Value

$13.25

PnL

+$2.85

Record

51%

1285-1225 (2510)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.83

Value

$11.69

PnL

+$8.86

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.99

Value

$7.99

PnL

-$3

Record

52%

5878-5516 (11394)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.97

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$21.31

Record

62%

13616-8455 (22071)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 21 top traders (52%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.