Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 96¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$5.9K
$845.05
67.2¢ → 96¢
+43% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 68¢ | $4.3K | $5.1K | +$817.77 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
FO foooool | Noavg 53.8¢ | $273.58 | $269.91 | -$3.67 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 RN1 | Noavg 69.9¢ | $141.01 | $172.45 | +$31.44 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 59¢ | $151.07 | $155.38 | +$4.31 | 53% 15742-13910 (29652) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $45.61 | $66.38 | +$20.77 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 54.6¢ | $74.36 | $51.72 | -$22.64 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 60.2¢ | $73.74 | $16.11 | +$0.32 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $14.4 | $11.16 | -$3.24 | 59% 30098-20824 (50922) |
Invested
$4,291.55
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$817.77
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$273.58
Value
$269.91
PnL
-$3.67
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
RN1Invested
$141.01
Value
$172.45
PnL
+$31.44
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$151.07
Value
$155.38
PnL
+$4.31
Record
53%
15742-13910 (29652)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$45.61
Value
$66.38
PnL
+$20.77
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Invested
$74.36
Value
$51.72
PnL
-$22.64
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$73.74
Value
$16.11
PnL
+$0.32
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$11.16
PnL
-$3.24
Record
59%
30098-20824 (50922)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.