Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-10-31?

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 100¢ · $28K held · ended Oct 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$27.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

89.3¢ → 99.7¢

+12% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$27.5K

Total Shares27,524

Combined PnL+$29.77

Yes8 traders

Total Value$233.47

Total Shares14,193

Combined PnL$-1.5K

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 93.6¢	$7.9K	$8.4K	+$521.75	93% 856-61 (917)
AN Anon455	Noavg 84¢	$4.2K	$5.0K	+$766.84	55% 2916-2352 (5268)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 85.1¢	$5.8K	$3.7K	$-2.0K	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
oieshfn345	Noavg 90.3¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$323.27	57% 1733-1295 (3028)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 84¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$474	67% 2635-1282 (3917)
RN1	Noavg 95.2¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$148.79	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 93¢	$748.06	$802.76	+$54.7	50% 33443-33004 (66447)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 93¢	$669.6	$717.84	+$48.24	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 93.3¢	$368.5	$376.61	+$8.12	52% 13799-12598 (26397)
OD OddstormCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$160	$160	+$5	39% 424-670 (1094)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 15.9¢	$138.9	$48.34	-$90.56	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$37.27	$36.45	-$0.82	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 8.4¢	$588.16	$14.06	-$574.1	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 90¢	$11.67	$10.63	-$1.04	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 15.5¢	$725.54	$9.35	-$716.18	53% 15968-14143 (30111)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$48.58	$1.16	-$47.42	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$17.4	$0.35	-$17.05	58% 18669-13724 (32393)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$13.94	$0.19	-$13.75	62% 13712-8576 (22288)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$1.55	$0.02	-$1.53	48% 2404-2633 (5037)

Momo63

Invested

$7,896.53

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$521.75

Record

93%

856-61 (917)

Anon455

Invested

$4,223.47

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$766.84

Record

55%

2916-2352 (5268)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$5,757.45

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

oieshfn345

Invested

$3,167.27

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$323.27

Record

57%

1733-1295 (3028)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,520

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$474

Record

67%

2635-1282 (3917)

RN1

Invested

$2,230.08

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$148.79

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

SnakeBall

Invested

$748.06

Value

$802.76

PnL

+$54.7

Record

50%

33443-33004 (66447)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$669.6

Value

$717.84

PnL

+$48.24

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$368.5

Value

$376.61

PnL

+$8.12

Record

52%

13799-12598 (26397)

OddstormCTR

Yes

Invested

$160

Value

$160

PnL

+$5

Record

39%

424-670 (1094)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.9

Value

$48.34

PnL

-$90.56

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$37.27

Value

$36.45

PnL

-$0.82

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$588.16

Value

$14.06

PnL

-$574.1

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$11.67

Value

$10.63

PnL

-$1.04

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$725.54

Value

$9.35

PnL

-$716.18

Record

53%

15968-14143 (30111)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.58

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$47.42

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.4

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$17.05

Record

58%

18669-13724 (32393)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.94

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$13.75

Record

62%

13712-8576 (22288)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.53

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.