Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (11%) · Over at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 11%

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares9,416

Combined PnL+$4.71

Under8 traders

Total Value$890.33

Total Shares5,362

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Over — 11%Under — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$9.4K	$9.4K	+$4.71	98% 13075-209 (13284)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 59¢	$1.1K	$334.12	-$791.55	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 12¢	$148.01	$200.45	+$52.44	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 13.6¢	$162.15	$172.28	+$10.13	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 10.5¢	$52.5	$72.5	+$20	55% 2916-2352 (5268)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 51.3¢	$199.39	$64.08	-$135.31	50% 33443-33004 (66447)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 75.5¢	$271.91	$30.16	-$241.75	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 17.8¢	$20.45	$16.67	-$3.78	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$15	$0.08	-$14.93	59% 10226-7214 (17440)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$9,406.53

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$4.71

Record

98%

13075-209 (13284)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,125.67

Value

$334.12

PnL

-$791.55

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$148.01

Value

$200.45

PnL

+$52.44

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$162.15

Value

$172.28

PnL

+$10.13

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.5

Value

$72.5

PnL

+$20

Record

55%

2916-2352 (5268)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$199.39

Value

$64.08

PnL

-$135.31

Record

50%

33443-33004 (66447)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$271.91

Value

$30.16

PnL

-$241.75

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.45

Value

$16.67

PnL

-$3.78

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$14.93

Record

59%

10226-7214 (17440)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.