Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (46%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 46%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$528.91

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,518

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Under6 traders

Total Value$604.47

Total Shares5,668

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Over — 54%Under — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Overavg 39¢	$780	$2.0K	+$1.2K	53% 5636-4973 (10609)
RN1	Overavg 50¢	$665.38	$1.3K	+$664.71	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
AN AnonymousUsername	Overavg 39¢	$291.33	$746.63	+$455.3	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 60.6¢	$1.2K	$602.41	-$574.76	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
AN Anon455	Overavg 50¢	$125	$249.88	+$124.88	55% 2916-2352 (5268)
FO foooool	Overavg 55.4¢	$149.61	$179.95	+$30.34	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 39¢	$1.95	$5	+$3.05	48% 2404-2633 (5037)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 40¢	$2	$5	+$3	76% 4055-1285 (5340)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 60.4¢	$2.0K	$1.62	$-2.0K	49% 19187-19579 (38766)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 56.3¢	$327.68	$0.29	-$327.39	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 61.4¢	$111.69	$0.09	-$111.6	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$44.34	$0.05	-$44.29	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$17.16	$0.01	-$17.15	53% 4726-4250 (8976)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Over

Invested

$780

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

53%

5636-4973 (10609)

RN1

Over

Invested

$665.38

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$664.71

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

AnonymousUsername

Over

Invested

$291.33

Value

$746.63

PnL

+$455.3

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,177.17

Value

$602.41

PnL

-$574.76

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$125

Value

$249.88

PnL

+$124.88

Record

55%

2916-2352 (5268)

foooool

Over

Invested

$149.61

Value

$179.95

PnL

+$30.34

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$1.95

Value

PnL

+$3.05

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

+$3

Record

76%

4055-1285 (5340)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$1,955.61

Value

$1.62

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

49%

19187-19579 (38766)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$327.68

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$327.39

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$111.69

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$111.6

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.34

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$44.29

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.16

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$17.15

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.