Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 62¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31

Over62¢Under38¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$263.14

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 61.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,368

Combined PnL+$21.26

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,239

Combined PnL+$241.88

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 61¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$21.82	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 39¢	$680	$871.79	+$191.79	52% 4714-4426 (9140)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 39¢	$517.07	$510.45	-$6.63	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 39¢	$178.62	$229	+$50.38	45% 670-828 (1498)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 39¢	$195	$192.5	-$2.5	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$33.54	$43	+$9.46	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$35.49	$35.04	-$0.45	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$13.65	$13.48	-$0.18	57% 13613-10430 (24043)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 61¢	$3.06	$2.51	-$0.55	50% 33199-32726 (65925)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$2,661.43

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$21.82

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$680

Value

$871.79

PnL

+$191.79

Record

52%

4714-4426 (9140)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$517.07

Value

$510.45

PnL

-$6.63

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$178.62

Value

$229

PnL

+$50.38

Record

45%

670-828 (1498)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$195

Value

$192.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.54

Value

$43

PnL

+$9.46

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.49

Value

$35.04

PnL

-$0.45

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.65

Value

$13.48

PnL

-$0.18

Record

57%

13613-10430 (24043)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$3.06

Value

$2.51

PnL

-$0.55

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.