Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 100¢ · $333 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 17%
$333.16
-$345.69
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Socialista | Overavg 83¢ | $331.99 | $331.99 | -$0 | 63% 2700-1603 (4303) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 14.8¢ | $167.55 | $0.57 | -$166.99 | 50% 33443-33004 (66447) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 17.2¢ | $134.19 | $0.39 | -$133.8 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 9¢ | $29.6 | $0.16 | -$29.44 | 50% 25153-24879 (50032) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $12.73 | $0.04 | -$12.7 | 49% 12659-13060 (25719) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 17.8¢ | $2.78 | $0.01 | -$2.77 | 53% 15968-14143 (30111) |
SocialistaInvested
$331.99
Value
$331.99
PnL
-$0
Record
63%
2700-1603 (4303)
Invested
$167.55
Value
$0.57
PnL
-$166.99
Record
50%
33443-33004 (66447)
Invested
$134.19
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$133.8
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
Invested
$29.6
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$29.44
Record
50%
25153-24879 (50032)
Invested
$12.73
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$12.7
Record
49%
12659-13060 (25719)
Invested
$2.78
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.77
Record
53%
15968-14143 (30111)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.