Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Udinese Calcio, while the market favors AS Roma (78%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Udinese Calcio (38%) · Udinese Calcio at 23¢ · $556 held · ended Oct 31

AS Roma78¢Udinese Calcio22¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Udinese Calcio

Consensus Traders

Udinese Calcio 38%

Total Value

$555.57

Combined PnL

$75.23

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 22.5¢

-62% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUdinese Calcio at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Udinese Calcio

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors AS Roma 78%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

AS Roma78%

Udinese Calcio23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Udinese Calcio3 traders

Total Value$464.04

Total Shares527

Combined PnL+$101.51

AS Roma5 traders

Total Value$91.52

Total Shares219

Combined PnL-$26.28

Udinese Calcio — 38%AS Roma — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Udinese Calcioavg 72.4¢	$333.73	$352.28	+$18.55	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
AN Anon455CTR	Udinese Calcioavg 21¢	$28.11	$107.74	+$79.63	55% 2916-2352 (5268)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	AS Romaavg 36.8¢	$32.6	$44.84	+$12.24	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
GH ghorrock<$100	AS Romaavg 36.5¢	$18.66	$16.71	+$17.81	57% 13827-10598 (24425)
SN SnakeBall<$100	AS Romaavg 27¢	$15.39	$11.12	-$4.28	50% 33443-33004 (66447)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	AS Romaavg 71.7¢	$39.45	$10.73	-$28.73	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
AR ARocky33<$100	AS Romaavg 75.5¢	$31.46	$8.13	-$23.33	76% 4055-1285 (5340)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Udinese Calcioavg 14¢	$0.7	$4.03	+$3.33	63% 1118-644 (1762)

UpTheBluesCTR

Udinese Calcio

Invested

$333.73

Value

$352.28

PnL

+$18.55

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

Anon455CTR

Udinese Calcio

Invested

$28.11

Value

$107.74

PnL

+$79.63

Record

55%

2916-2352 (5268)

topdogbigboi<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$32.6

Value

$44.84

PnL

+$12.24

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

ghorrock<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$18.66

Value

$16.71

PnL

+$17.81

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

SnakeBall<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$15.39

Value

$11.12

PnL

-$4.28

Record

50%

33443-33004 (66447)

GoalLineGhost<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$39.45

Value

$10.73

PnL

-$28.73

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

ARocky33<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$31.46

Value

$8.13

PnL

-$23.33

Record

76%

4055-1285 (5340)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Udinese Calcio

Invested

$0.7

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$3.33

Record

63%

1118-644 (1762)

Research grade

AvoidUdinese Calcio at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Udinese Calcio

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors AS Roma 78%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Udinese Calcio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.