Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold AS Roma (55%) · AS Roma at 95¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 31

AS Roma95¢Udinese Calcio5¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

AS Roma

Consensus Traders

AS Roma 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.8K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 94.7¢

+52% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralAS Roma at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

AS Roma

11 of 20 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

AS Roma95%

Udinese Calcio5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

AS Roma11 traders

Total Value$17.4K

Total Shares17,881

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Udinese Calcio9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,783

Combined PnL-$981.42

AS Roma — 55%Udinese Calcio — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on AS Roma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUdinese Calcio 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpAS Roma 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAS Roma 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUdinese Calcio 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Udinese Calcio 63% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	AS Romaavg 39¢	$3.0K	$7.6K	-$232.07	48% 412-453 (865)
GO GoalLineGhost	AS Romaavg 81.6¢	$6.2K	$4.8K	$-1.5K	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
UP UpTheBlues	AS Romaavg 94¢	$4.3K	$2.8K	$-1.6K	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
VeryLucky888	AS Romaavg 39¢	$422.94	$832.29	+$483.33	58% 41980-30479 (72459)
0xheavy888CTR	Udinese Calcioavg 60¢	$796	$800	+$4	55% 7128-5716 (12844)
AR ARocky33	AS Romaavg 95¢	$712.38	$738.62	+$26.25	76% 4055-1285 (5340)
RN1CTR	Udinese Calcioavg 59.5¢	$858.18	$312.82	-$545.36	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
TO torta.tech	AS Romaavg 54¢	$151.74	$276.78	+$125.04	63% 8135-4874 (13009)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Udinese Calcioavg 55¢	$679.31	$203.91	-$475.39	50% 33443-33004 (66447)
└ AS Roma leg	AS Romaavg 93.8¢	$145.7	$146.14	+$0.43
└ Udinese Calcio leg	Udinese Calcioavg 55¢	$533.6	$57.78	-$475.83
poshposh	AS Romaavg 96.7¢	$145.05	$141.98	-$3.15	59% 10226-7214 (17440)
AN AnonymousUsername	AS Romaavg 38¢	$143.07	$141.21	-$1.86	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	AS Romaavg 52.6¢	$46.7	$87.44	+$40.73	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
CA CannaeCTR	Udinese Calcioavg 60.7¢	$208.69	$62.32	-$182.11	53% 15968-14143 (30111)
AN Anon455CTR	Udinese Calcioavg 47.3¢	$163.38	$41.32	-$122.06	55% 2916-2352 (5268)
RO Rocko33<$100	AS Romaavg 50.7¢	$15.23	$29.55	+$14.33	63% 1118-644 (1762)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	AS Romaavg 50¢	$10	$18.57	+$8.58	59% 30487-21198 (51685)
GH ghorrockCTR	Udinese Calcioavg 60.1¢	$123.46	$12.27	-$30.04	57% 13827-10598 (24425)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Udinese Calcioavg 61¢	$101.26	$9.79	-$91.47	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Udinese Calcioavg 7.6¢	$6.54	$4.57	-$1.97	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Udinese Calcioavg 61¢	$1.3	$0.97	-$0.32	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Udinese Calcioavg 62¢	$12.4	$0.3	-$12.1	51% 1453-1400 (2853)

Pwaddler

AS Roma

Invested

$3,017.02

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$232.07

Record

48%

412-453 (865)

GoalLineGhost

AS Roma

Invested

$6,229.84

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

UpTheBlues

AS Roma

Invested

$4,338.77

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

VeryLucky888

AS Roma

Invested

$422.94

Value

$832.29

PnL

+$483.33

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

0xheavy888CTR

Udinese Calcio

Invested

$796

Value

$800

PnL

+$4

Record

55%

7128-5716 (12844)

ARocky33

AS Roma

Invested

$712.38

Value

$738.62

PnL

+$26.25

Record

76%

4055-1285 (5340)

RN1CTR

Udinese Calcio

Invested

$858.18

Value

$312.82

PnL

-$545.36

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

torta.tech

AS Roma

Invested

$151.74

Value

$276.78

PnL

+$125.04

Record

63%

8135-4874 (13009)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Udinese Calcio

Invested

$679.31

Value

$203.91

PnL

-$475.39

Record

50%

33443-33004 (66447)

Both legs:

AS Roma$145.793.8¢+$0.43

Udinese Calcio$533.655¢-$475.83

poshposh

AS Roma

Invested

$145.05

Value

$141.98

PnL

-$3.15

Record

59%

10226-7214 (17440)

AnonymousUsername

AS Roma

Invested

$143.07

Value

$141.21

PnL

-$1.86

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

topdogbigboi<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$46.7

Value

$87.44

PnL

+$40.73

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

CannaeCTR

Udinese Calcio

Invested

$208.69

Value

$62.32

PnL

-$182.11

Record

53%

15968-14143 (30111)

Anon455CTR

Udinese Calcio

Invested

$163.38

Value

$41.32

PnL

-$122.06

Record

55%

2916-2352 (5268)

Rocko33<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$15.23

Value

$29.55

PnL

+$14.33

Record

63%

1118-644 (1762)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$10

Value

$18.57

PnL

+$8.58

Record

59%

30487-21198 (51685)

ghorrockCTR

Udinese Calcio

Invested

$123.46

Value

$12.27

PnL

-$30.04

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

LuckyLooCTR

Udinese Calcio

Invested

$101.26

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$91.47

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Udinese Calcio

Invested

$6.54

Value

$4.57

PnL

-$1.97

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Udinese Calcio

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.32

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Udinese Calcio

Invested

$12.4

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$12.1

Record

51%

1453-1400 (2853)

Research grade

NeutralAS Roma at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

AS Roma

11 of 20 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on AS Roma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUdinese Calcio 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpAS Roma 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAS Roma 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUdinese Calcio 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Udinese Calcio 63% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that AS Roma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.