Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 38¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.1K
$292.11
37.5¢ → 37.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 36.7¢ | $542.23 | $746.6 | +$204.37 | 58% 41280-29927 (71207) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 40¢ | $223.6 | $282.3 | +$58.7 | 50% 33085-32648 (65733) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $61.76 | $84.29 | +$22.53 | 53% 15864-14040 (29904) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.4¢ | $12.31 | $17.07 | +$4.76 | 57% 13386-10232 (23618) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $4.81 | $6.57 | +$1.76 | 38% 365-594 (959) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$542.23
Value
$746.6
PnL
+$204.37
Record
58%
41280-29927 (71207)
Invested
$223.6
Value
$282.3
PnL
+$58.7
Record
50%
33085-32648 (65733)
Invested
$61.76
Value
$84.29
PnL
+$22.53
Record
53%
15864-14040 (29904)
Invested
$12.31
Value
$17.07
PnL
+$4.76
Record
57%
13386-10232 (23618)
Invested
$4.81
Value
$6.57
PnL
+$1.76
Record
38%
365-594 (959)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.