AS Roma leading at halftime?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$1.1K
-$220.3
96.2¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 99¢ | $663.17 | $669.53 | +$6.36 | 49% 19187-19579 (38766) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 99¢ | $318.51 | $291.88 | -$26.63 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $38 | $54.48 | +$16.49 | 54% 56642-48828 (105470) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 51¢ | $267.64 | $53.25 | -$214.39 | 49% 12659-13060 (25719) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $52.62 | $52.62 | +$0 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $12.25 | $12.01 | -$0.24 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $1.9 | $0.01 | -$1.9 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
Invested
$663.17
Value
$669.53
PnL
+$6.36
Record
49%
19187-19579 (38766)
Invested
$318.51
Value
$291.88
PnL
-$26.63
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
RN1<$100Invested
$38
Value
$54.48
PnL
+$16.49
Record
54%
56642-48828 (105470)
Invested
$267.64
Value
$53.25
PnL
-$214.39
Record
49%
12659-13060 (25719)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$52.62
Value
$52.62
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$12.25
Value
$12.01
PnL
-$0.24
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.9
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.