Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: 1st Half O/U 1.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $360 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 88%
$359.65
$-1.3K
49.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 58¢ | $174 | $177 | +$3 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 48.7¢ | $834.75 | $101.45 | -$733.3 | 54% 56642-48828 (105470) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $41.18 | $41.89 | +$0.71 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $19.56 | $19.89 | +$0.34 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $8.87 | $18.86 | +$9.99 | 49% 12659-13060 (25719) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 48.4¢ | $503.74 | $0.52 | -$503.22 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 32.2¢ | $13.79 | $0.02 | -$13.77 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $25.09 | $0.02 | -$25.07 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$174
Value
$177
PnL
+$3
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
RN1CTRInvested
$834.75
Value
$101.45
PnL
-$733.3
Record
54%
56642-48828 (105470)
Invested
$41.18
Value
$41.89
PnL
+$0.71
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
Invested
$19.56
Value
$19.89
PnL
+$0.34
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
Invested
$8.87
Value
$18.86
PnL
+$9.99
Record
49%
12659-13060 (25719)
Invested
$503.74
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$503.22
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
Invested
$13.79
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$13.77
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$25.09
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$25.07
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.