Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
3 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$9.85
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $2.3K | $2.0K | -$323.75 | 54% 56642-48828 (105470) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61¢ | $1.9K | $1.6K | -$344.23 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 47.6¢ | $399.93 | $420.4 | +$20.48 | |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $281.38 | $264.92 | -$16.46 | 50% 10883-10699 (21582) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.3¢ | $131.98 | $142.53 | +$10.55 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61¢ | $149.4 | $122.39 | -$27.01 | |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Yesavg 51.8¢ | $79.26 | $92.87 | +$13.61 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 51.8¢ | $40.65 | $62.4 | +$21.76 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 26¢ | $38.61 | $30.47 | -$8.14 | |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $57.87 | $54.12 | -$3.75 | 53% 15968-14143 (30111) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.1¢ | $12.37 | $14.69 | +$2.31 | 50% 33443-33004 (66447) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 54.8¢ | $8.32 | $7.59 | -$0.73 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $7.19 | $3.51 | -$3.68 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $4.05 | $0.05 | -$4.01 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,310.66
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$323.75
Record
54%
56642-48828 (105470)
Both legs:
Invested
$281.38
Value
$264.92
PnL
-$16.46
Record
50%
10883-10699 (21582)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.26
Value
$92.87
PnL
+$13.61
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.87
Value
$54.12
PnL
-$3.75
Record
53%
15968-14143 (30111)
Invested
$12.37
Value
$14.69
PnL
+$2.31
Record
50%
33443-33004 (66447)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.32
Value
$7.59
PnL
-$0.73
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
Invested
$7.19
Value
$3.51
PnL
-$3.68
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
Invested
$4.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$4.01
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.