Torino FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 5.5
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 99¢ · $37K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 89%
$37.4K
$34.45
98.1¢ → 99¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alohaa | Underavg 99.7¢ | $30.3K | $30.3K | -$45.66 | 63% 1182-697 (1879) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 91.8¢ | $6.1K | $6.2K | +$82.81 | 50% 32622-32156 (64778) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 92.1¢ | $364.61 | $368.34 | +$3.73 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
 RN1 | Underavg 96.1¢ | $197.4 | $192.2 | -$5.2 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 91¢ | $166.52 | $170.18 | +$3.66 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 91¢ | $80.24 | $81.85 | +$1.76 | 57% 12947-9854 (22801) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 91¢ | $37.72 | $53.31 | +$15.59 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 98.6¢ | $32.95 | $29.54 | -$3.42 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 12¢ | $45.21 | $26.37 | -$18.84 | 50% 11976-12131 (24107) |
Invested
$30,324.78
Value
$30.3K
PnL
-$45.66
Record
63%
1182-697 (1879)
Invested
$6,136.11
Value
$6.2K
PnL
+$82.81
Record
50%
32622-32156 (64778)
Invested
$364.61
Value
$368.34
PnL
+$3.73
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
RN1Invested
$197.4
Value
$192.2
PnL
-$5.2
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Invested
$166.52
Value
$170.18
PnL
+$3.66
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
Invested
$80.24
Value
$81.85
PnL
+$1.76
Record
57%
12947-9854 (22801)
Invested
$37.72
Value
$53.31
PnL
+$15.59
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$32.95
Value
$29.54
PnL
-$3.42
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
Invested
$45.21
Value
$26.37
PnL
-$18.84
Record
50%
11976-12131 (24107)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.