Torino FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 4.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 99¢ · $444 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$443.84
$27.48
86.6¢ → 99.2¢
+15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 90¢ | $260.02 | $283.01 | +$22.99 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 81¢ | $126.35 | $131.03 | +$4.68 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $15.03 | $15.4 | +$0.37 | 50% 11976-12131 (24107) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 83¢ | $8.98 | $9.09 | +$0.11 | 50% 10448-10312 (20760) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 19¢ | $4.75 | $4 | -$0.75 | 50% 6747-6755 (13502) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $1.22 | $1.3 | +$0.08 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
Invested
$260.02
Value
$283.01
PnL
+$22.99
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
Invested
$126.35
Value
$131.03
PnL
+$4.68
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
Invested
$15.03
Value
$15.4
PnL
+$0.37
Record
50%
11976-12131 (24107)
Invested
$8.98
Value
$9.09
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
10448-10312 (20760)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.75
Record
50%
6747-6755 (13502)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.3
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.