Torino FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 0.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 27

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

-$142.46

Smart Money Entry

94.5¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,165

Combined PnL-$186.92

Under4 traders

Total Value$738.03

Total Shares9,922

Combined PnL+$44.46

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 94.6¢	$7.1K	$7.0K	-$218	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 93.1¢	$787	$793	+$12.95	51% 1218-1152 (2370)
RN1CTR	Underavg 6.5¢	$441.75	$473.24	+$31.49	54% 55386-47442 (102828)
PA pauleta23	Overavg 93¢	$299.99	$299.99	+$22.42	67% 23049-11442 (34491)
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 6¢	$212.88	$247.22	+$34.34	50% 10448-10312 (20760)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 95¢	$116.85	$114.39	-$2.46	50% 6747-6755 (13502)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 98¢	$39.2	$37.2	-$2	64% 955-534 (1489)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 94¢	$32.9	$34.96	+$0.18	58% 27884-20523 (48407)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$12.5	$17.5	-$12.38	56% 2575-2024 (4599)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$9.06	$0.06	-$8.99	54% 2639-2268 (4907)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$7,063.4

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$218

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$787

Value

$793

PnL

+$12.95

Record

51%

1218-1152 (2370)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$441.75

Value

$473.24

PnL

+$31.49

Record

54%

55386-47442 (102828)

pauleta23

Over

Invested

$299.99

Value

$299.99

PnL

+$22.42

Record

67%

23049-11442 (34491)

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$212.88

Value

$247.22

PnL

+$34.34

Record

50%

10448-10312 (20760)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$116.85

Value

$114.39

PnL

-$2.46

Record

50%

6747-6755 (13502)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$39.2

Value

$37.2

PnL

-$2

Record

64%

955-534 (1489)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$32.9

Value

$34.96

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

27884-20523 (48407)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.5

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$12.38

Record

56%

2575-2024 (4599)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$8.99

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.