Will Torino FC win on 2026-10-27?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 81¢ · $338 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$337.62
-$1.12
81¢ → 80.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KL kleomarcus | Noavg 81¢ | $202.49 | $204.99 | +$2.5 | 63% 1646-987 (2633) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $95.38 | $90.36 | -$5.02 | 59% 44229-30605 (74834) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.1¢ | $40.53 | $40.22 | -$0.31 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $35.55 | $1.83 | +$1.73 | 58% 40364-29157 (69521) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $0.23 | $0.22 | -$0.02 | 53% 15681-13855 (29536) |
Invested
$202.49
Value
$204.99
PnL
+$2.5
Record
63%
1646-987 (2633)
Invested
$95.38
Value
$90.36
PnL
-$5.02
Record
59%
44229-30605 (74834)
Invested
$40.53
Value
$40.22
PnL
-$0.31
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$35.55
Value
$1.83
PnL
+$1.73
Record
58%
40364-29157 (69521)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
15681-13855 (29536)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.