Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Torino FC (40%) · Torino FC at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27

Como 190731¢Torino FC69¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Torino FC

Consensus Traders

Torino FC 40%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$16.27

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 69.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralTorino FC at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Torino FC

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Como 190731%

Torino FC70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Torino FC2 traders

Total Value$924.94

Total Shares1,381

Combined PnL-$14.29

Como 19073 traders

Total Value$940.85

Total Shares2,857

Combined PnL-$1.97

Torino FC — 40%Como 1907 — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Torino FCavg 68.1¢	$930.65	$916.23	-$14.42	59% 44229-30605 (74834)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Como 1907avg 33.1¢	$907	$904.83	-$2.17	50% 24100-23732 (47832)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Como 1907avg 31.6¢	$26.4	$25.48	-$0.92	57% 12899-9813 (22712)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Como 1907avg 31¢	$9.91	$10.55	+$1.12	53% 15681-13855 (29536)
HRTrading<$100	Torino FCavg 66¢	$8.58	$8.71	+$0.13	54% 2548-2180 (4728)

UpTheBlues

Torino FC

Invested

$930.65

Value

$916.23

PnL

-$14.42

Record

59%

44229-30605 (74834)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Como 1907

Invested

$907

Value

$904.83

PnL

-$2.17

Record

50%

24100-23732 (47832)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Como 1907

Invested

$26.4

Value

$25.48

PnL

-$0.92

Record

57%

12899-9813 (22712)

CannaeCTR<$100

Como 1907

Invested

$9.91

Value

$10.55

PnL

+$1.12

Record

53%

15681-13855 (29536)

HRTrading<$100

Torino FC

Invested

$8.58

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

2548-2180 (4728)

Research grade

NeutralTorino FC at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Torino FC

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Torino FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.