Torino FC vs. Como 1907: Draw at halftime?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $267 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$267.14
$11.47
68¢ → 100¢
+47% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $75 | $81.65 | +$12.85 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 60.2¢ | $66.2 | $78.1 | +$11.9 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $64.04 | $56.22 | -$7.82 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 80.1¢ | $27.64 | $24.49 | -$3.15 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $18.53 | $16.05 | -$2.49 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $7.02 | $7.2 | +$0.18 | 50% 6747-6755 (13502) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $2.4 | $2.4 | +$0 | 60% 9138-6084 (15222) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $1.04 | $1.04 | +$0 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$75
Value
$81.65
PnL
+$12.85
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
Invested
$66.2
Value
$78.1
PnL
+$11.9
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
Invested
$64.04
Value
$56.22
PnL
-$7.82
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
RN1<$100Invested
$27.64
Value
$24.49
PnL
-$3.15
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Invested
$18.53
Value
$16.05
PnL
-$2.49
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$7.2
PnL
+$0.18
Record
50%
6747-6755 (13502)
poshposh<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
9138-6084 (15222)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.04
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.