Como 1907 leading at halftime?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.6K
$517.92
56.6¢ → 100¢
+77% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 56.7¢ | $612.05 | $1.0K | +$391.93 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
SH shiifoo | Noavg 56¢ | $338.51 | $328.35 | +$138.79 | 60% 3224-2161 (5385) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 57¢ | $70.11 | $114.39 | +$44.28 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $182.17 | $105.89 | -$76.29 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $64.5 | $83.71 | +$19.21 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$612.05
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$391.93
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
Invested
$338.51
Value
$328.35
PnL
+$138.79
Record
60%
3224-2161 (5385)
Invested
$70.11
Value
$114.39
PnL
+$44.28
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
Invested
$182.17
Value
$105.89
PnL
-$76.29
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$64.5
Value
$83.71
PnL
+$19.21
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.