Exact Score: Torino FC 2 - 3 Como 1907?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.6K
-$1.84
96.2¢ → 96.3¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.2¢ | $665.45 | $664.25 | -$1.19 | 50% 32578-32115 (64693) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96.2¢ | $456.95 | $456 | -$0.95 | 50% 11935-12084 (24019) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 96.2¢ | $418.47 | $418.25 | -$0.22 | 59% 44240-30609 (74849) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $44.44 | $44.49 | +$0.05 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $36.37 | $36.84 | +$0.48 | 50% 6745-6752 (13497) |
Invested
$665.45
Value
$664.25
PnL
-$1.19
Record
50%
32578-32115 (64693)
Invested
$456.95
Value
$456
PnL
-$0.95
Record
50%
11935-12084 (24019)
Invested
$418.47
Value
$418.25
PnL
-$0.22
Record
59%
44240-30609 (74849)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$44.44
Value
$44.49
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
Invested
$36.37
Value
$36.84
PnL
+$0.48
Record
50%
6745-6752 (13497)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.