Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Exact Score: Torino FC 1 - 0 Como 1907?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$2.4K
-$792.14
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Noavg 88.9¢ | $2.8K | $2.1K | -$660.97 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $401.32 | $267.78 | -$133.54 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
PU purplegatto<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $6.29 | $7.79 | +$1.51 | 50% 5747-5847 (11594) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 11.9¢ | $2.44 | $5.86 | +$3.42 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $7.93 | $5.29 | -$2.64 | 50% 32622-32156 (64778) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $0.24 | $0.31 | +$0.07 | 50% 11976-12131 (24107) |
RN1CTRInvested
$2,755.84
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$660.97
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Invested
$401.32
Value
$267.78
PnL
-$133.54
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
Invested
$6.29
Value
$7.79
PnL
+$1.51
Record
50%
5747-5847 (11594)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.44
Value
$5.86
PnL
+$3.42
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
Invested
$7.93
Value
$5.29
PnL
-$2.64
Record
50%
32622-32156 (64778)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.31
PnL
+$0.07
Record
50%
11976-12131 (24107)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.