Will Torino FC vs. Como 1907 end in a draw?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 72¢ · $22K held · ended Oct 27

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$22.1K

Combined PnL

$760.03

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 71.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$20.1K

Total Shares26,320

Combined PnL+$580.78

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares6,966

Combined PnL+$179.25

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 70.3¢	$12.7K	$13.1K	+$375.19	56% 2575-2024 (4599)
RN1	Noavg 68¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$61.04	54% 55386-47442 (102828)
oieshfn345	Noavg 68.8¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$86.58	58% 1604-1185 (2789)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$177.86	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 68¢	$672.26	$708.75	+$36.5	62% 13581-8424 (22005)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 70¢	$630	$648	+$18	51% 1218-1152 (2370)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 71.4¢	$354.9	$357.93	+$3.03	52% 13507-12361 (25868)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$191.18	$223.04	+$31.86	58% 40458-29241 (69699)
CA Cannae	Noavg 74.8¢	$197.45	$189.99	+$1.78	53% 15687-13859 (29546)
KW kwzoCTR	Yesavg 31.9¢	$180	$158.07	-$21.93	46% 65-76 (141)
noosh3CTR	Yesavg 31.9¢	$125.98	$110.64	-$15.34	52% 239-219 (458)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 72¢	$50	$50	-$0	50% 10448-10312 (20760)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$28.32	$33.04	+$4.72	58% 27884-20523 (48407)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 75¢	$33.55	$32.22	-$1.33	59% 44322-30683 (75005)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.6¢	$7.75	$9.83	+$2.08	54% 2639-2268 (4907)

Anon455

Invested

$12,742.97

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$375.19

Record

56%

2575-2024 (4599)

RN1

Invested

$2,640.72

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$61.04

Record

54%

55386-47442 (102828)

oieshfn345

Invested

$2,170.81

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$86.58

Record

58%

1604-1185 (2789)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,415.4

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$177.86

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$672.26

Value

$708.75

PnL

+$36.5

Record

62%

13581-8424 (22005)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$630

Value

$648

PnL

+$18

Record

51%

1218-1152 (2370)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$354.9

Value

$357.93

PnL

+$3.03

Record

52%

13507-12361 (25868)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$191.18

Value

$223.04

PnL

+$31.86

Record

58%

40458-29241 (69699)

Cannae

Invested

$197.45

Value

$189.99

PnL

+$1.78

Record

53%

15687-13859 (29546)

kwzoCTR

Yes

Invested

$180

Value

$158.07

PnL

-$21.93

Record

46%

65-76 (141)

noosh3CTR

Yes

Invested

$125.98

Value

$110.64

PnL

-$15.34

Record

52%

239-219 (458)

foooool<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$50

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

10448-10312 (20760)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.32

Value

$33.04

PnL

+$4.72

Record

58%

27884-20523 (48407)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$33.55

Value

$32.22

PnL

-$1.33

Record

59%

44322-30683 (75005)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.75

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$2.08

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.