Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Torino FC vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 25¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27

Yes76¢No24¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$139

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 24.5¢

-42% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$862.7

Total Shares2,529

Combined PnL-$241.58

Yes3 traders

Total Value$502.33

Total Shares647

Combined PnL+$102.58

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 42.6¢	$383	$378	-$5	51% 1212-1148 (2360)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 57¢	$253.28	$362.86	+$109.58	50% 11972-12123 (24095)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 40.6¢	$248.38	$250.37	+$1.99	58% 27876-20518 (48394)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 40.8¢	$566.93	$123	-$120.02	58% 40444-29225 (69669)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 59¢	$120.47	$120.47	+$0	53% 15683-13857 (29540)
RN1CTR	Noavg 47¢	$134.18	$58.48	-$75.69	54% 55371-47422 (102793)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 41.6¢	$82.6	$44.92	-$37.69	50% 32615-32151 (64766)
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$26	$19	-$7	64% 954-533 (1487)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 36.3¢	$13.09	$7.93	-$5.16	54% 2625-2252 (4877)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$383

Value

$378

PnL

-$5

Record

51%

1212-1148 (2360)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$253.28

Value

$362.86

PnL

+$109.58

Record

50%

11972-12123 (24095)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$248.38

Value

$250.37

PnL

+$1.99

Record

58%

27876-20518 (48394)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$566.93

Value

$123

PnL

-$120.02

Record

58%

40444-29225 (69669)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$120.47

Value

$120.47

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15683-13857 (29540)

RN1CTR

Invested

$134.18

Value

$58.48

PnL

-$75.69

Record

54%

55371-47422 (102793)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$82.6

Value

$44.92

PnL

-$37.69

Record

50%

32615-32151 (64766)

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$26

Value

$19

PnL

-$7

Record

64%

954-533 (1487)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$13.09

Value

$7.93

PnL

-$5.16

Record

54%

2625-2252 (4877)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.