US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 7.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 27

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$23.5K

Combined PnL

$5.8K

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 100¢

+94% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares23,959

Combined PnL+$8.0K

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,983

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 56.5¢	$7.9K	$12.3K	+$4.3K	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 33.8¢	$2.4K	$4.5K	+$2.0K	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 51.2¢	$1.7K	$2.6K	+$822.85	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
poshposh	Overavg 38.8¢	$715.11	$1.4K	+$651.71	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
StudyPredictionCTR	Underavg 94¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$789.99	54% 4511-3901 (8412)
fxwd12345	Overavg 78.1¢	$702.89	$827.99	+$125.1	69% 1474-657 (2131)
AN Anon455	Overavg 63.3¢	$408.13	$487.2	+$79.08	56% 2573-2023 (4596)
AR ARocky33	Overavg 93.5¢	$394.33	$319.65	-$74.68	76% 3880-1236 (5116)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Overavg 0.9¢	$1.01	$50.96	+$49.95	63% 1047-604 (1651)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 49.7¢	$1.3K	$46.62	$-1.3K	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 56.5¢	$66.93	$21.98	-$44.95	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 44.6¢	$124.57	$0.28	-$124.29	50% 32601-32144 (64745)

RN1

Over

Invested

$7,919.03

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,435.12

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$1,733.02

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$822.85

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$715.11

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$651.71

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

StudyPredictionCTR

Under

Invested

$1,879.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$789.99

Record

54%

4511-3901 (8412)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$702.89

Value

$827.99

PnL

+$125.1

Record

69%

1474-657 (2131)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$408.13

Value

$487.2

PnL

+$79.08

Record

56%

2573-2023 (4596)

ARocky33

Over

Invested

$394.33

Value

$319.65

PnL

-$74.68

Record

76%

3880-1236 (5116)

lonmi2511<$100

Over

Invested

$1.01

Value

$50.96

PnL

+$49.95

Record

63%

1047-604 (1651)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,328.17

Value

$46.62

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.93

Value

$21.98

PnL

-$44.95

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$124.57

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$124.29

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.