US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 6.5

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (47%) · Over at 100¢ · $20K held · ended Oct 27

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 47%

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 100¢

+110% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares16,532

Combined PnL+$5.5K

Under8 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares12,685

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Over — 47%Under — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 43¢	$7.3K	$11.2K	+$3.9K	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
StudyPredictionCTR	Underavg 68.6¢	$2.7K	$3.9K	+$1.1K	54% 4511-3901 (8412)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 49.6¢	$1.4K	$2.9K	+$1.5K	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
fxwd12345	Overavg 85¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.67	69% 1474-657 (2131)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 66.2¢	$607.8	$409.36	-$198.44	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
poshposh	Overavg 49.6¢	$260.89	$407.14	+$146.25	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
AN Anon455	Overavg 43.2¢	$189.73	$204.4	+$14.67	56% 2573-2023 (4596)
AS astapzippoCTR	Underavg 58.3¢	$113.29	$111.72	-$1.57	56% 2109-1643 (3752)
RO Rocky31CTR	Underavg 56.9¢	$125.63	$102.52	-$23.11	73% 1437-531 (1968)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 92.2¢	$75.5	$61.69	-$13.81	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
FO forrestgumperCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$26.09	$20.71	-$5.38	48% 585-634 (1219)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 15.4¢	$27.19	$10.5	-$16.68	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 33¢	$1.9K	$2.92	$-1.9K	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 50.7¢	$704.46	$0.69	-$703.76	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 26.3¢	$51.33	$0.1	-$51.23	49% 18415-18835 (37250)

RN1

Over

Invested

$7,256.43

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

StudyPredictionCTR

Under

Invested

$2,743.77

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

4511-3901 (8412)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,430.85

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$1,133.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.67

Record

69%

1474-657 (2131)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$607.8

Value

$409.36

PnL

-$198.44

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$260.89

Value

$407.14

PnL

+$146.25

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$189.73

Value

$204.4

PnL

+$14.67

Record

56%

2573-2023 (4596)

astapzippoCTR

Under

Invested

$113.29

Value

$111.72

PnL

-$1.57

Record

56%

2109-1643 (3752)

Rocky31CTR

Under

Invested

$125.63

Value

$102.52

PnL

-$23.11

Record

73%

1437-531 (1968)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$75.5

Value

$61.69

PnL

-$13.81

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

forrestgumperCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.09

Value

$20.71

PnL

-$5.38

Record

48%

585-634 (1219)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$27.19

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$16.68

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$1,925.14

Value

$2.92

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$704.46

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$703.76

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.33

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$51.23

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.