US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 100¢

+57% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$875.49

Total Shares2,058

Combined PnL+$314.42

Over8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,275

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Fuentes31CTR	Underavg 46¢	$500	$875	+$375	53% 650-574 (1224)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 92¢	$607.39	$609.7	+$2.31	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
fxwd12345	Overavg 93¢	$2.7K	$563.16	$-2.1K	69% 1474-657 (2131)
0X 0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873	Overavg 17¢	$400.71	$459.63	+$58.93	37% 113-189 (302)
AN Anon455	Overavg 92¢	$230	$237.5	+$7.5	56% 2573-2023 (4596)
FO foooool	Overavg 52.6¢	$37.14	$209.28	+$172.14	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$70.99	$69.97	-$1.02	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 84¢	$14.48	$23.19	+$8.71	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 18¢	$4.16	$4.51	+$0.35	57% 12917-9835 (22752)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 6.3¢	$61.07	$0.49	-$60.58	54% 55353-47409 (102762)

Fuentes31CTR

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$875

PnL

+$375

Record

53%

650-574 (1224)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$607.39

Value

$609.7

PnL

+$2.31

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$2,685.83

Value

$563.16

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

69%

1474-657 (2131)

0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873

Over

Invested

$400.71

Value

$459.63

PnL

+$58.93

Record

37%

113-189 (302)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$230

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

56%

2573-2023 (4596)

foooool

Over

Invested

$37.14

Value

$209.28

PnL

+$172.14

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$70.99

Value

$69.97

PnL

-$1.02

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$14.48

Value

$23.19

PnL

+$8.71

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$4.16

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$0.35

Record

57%

12917-9835 (22752)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$61.07

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$60.58

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.