US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $957 held · ended Oct 27

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$957.35

Combined PnL

-$38.92

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 100¢

+125% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$765.1

Total Shares1,261

Combined PnL+$174.93

Under6 traders

Total Value$192.25

Total Shares1,377

Combined PnL-$213.86

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 56¢	$224	$399.8	+$175.8	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 34.1¢	$291.18	$330.33	+$39.14	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$96.26	$97.82	+$1.55	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Underavg 50.9¢	$53.28	$65.89	+$12.61	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 96.3¢	$64.99	$24.98	-$40.01	49% 18415-18835 (37250)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 48.5¢	$13.05	$16.97	+$3.92	67% 23032-11433 (34465)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 37¢	$9.99	$9.99	+$0	50% 6745-6755 (13500)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$2.5	$7.88	+$5.38	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 65¢	$3.17	$3.17	-$0	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 22.2¢	$237.85	$0.54	-$237.31	59% 44290-30654 (74944)

RN1

Over

Invested

$224

Value

$399.8

PnL

+$175.8

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$291.18

Value

$330.33

PnL

+$39.14

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$96.26

Value

$97.82

PnL

+$1.55

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$53.28

Value

$65.89

PnL

+$12.61

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$64.99

Value

$24.98

PnL

-$40.01

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.05

Value

$16.97

PnL

+$3.92

Record

67%

23032-11433 (34465)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6745-6755 (13500)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$7.88

PnL

+$5.38

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.17

Value

$3.17

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$237.85

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$237.31

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.