US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 60¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 25%
$16.6K
$151.64
58.4¢ → 59.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 aibaby | Overavg 58.4¢ | $11.5K | $11.7K | +$218.17 | 50% 82-81 (163) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 42.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$53.6 | 50% 24110-23737 (47847) |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Underavg 40¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$18.75 | 50% 1112-1110 (2222) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 41.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$32.54 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 42.9¢ | $725.36 | $727.04 | +$1.68 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 41.8¢ | $69.87 | $69.3 | -$0.57 | 58% 27870-20508 (48378) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 41.1¢ | $21.75 | $21.43 | -$0.32 | 57% 12909-9833 (22742) |
32 32555<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $8.08 | $8.22 | +$0.07 | 51% 79-77 (156) |
aibabyInvested
$11,463.96
Value
$11.7K
PnL
+$218.17
Record
50%
82-81 (163)
Invested
$1,629.25
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$53.6
Record
50%
24110-23737 (47847)
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$18.75
Record
50%
1112-1110 (2222)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,057.71
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$32.54
Record
58%
40396-29173 (69569)
Invested
$725.36
Value
$727.04
PnL
+$1.68
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
Invested
$69.87
Value
$69.3
PnL
-$0.57
Record
58%
27870-20508 (48378)
Invested
$21.75
Value
$21.43
PnL
-$0.32
Record
57%
12909-9833 (22742)
Invested
$8.08
Value
$8.22
PnL
+$0.07
Record
51%
79-77 (156)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.