US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 80¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$11.8K
-$30.97
81.1¢ → 79.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Aleksey1993 | Overavg 81.2¢ | $9.9K | $9.8K | -$87.4 | 76% 149-47 (196) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 18.9¢ | $648.26 | $702.68 | +$54.42 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1 | Overavg 80¢ | $592.56 | $596.26 | +$3.7 | 53% 2036-1804 (3840) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 19.9¢ | $567.77 | $556.48 | -$11.29 | 59% 44243-30611 (74854) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 18.4¢ | $60.79 | $66 | +$5.21 | 58% 27868-20503 (48371) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $52.66 | $58.51 | +$4.39 | 54% 55313-47351 (102664) |
Invested
$9,942.03
Value
$9.8K
PnL
-$87.4
Record
76%
149-47 (196)
Invested
$648.26
Value
$702.68
PnL
+$54.42
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
Invested
$592.56
Value
$596.26
PnL
+$3.7
Record
53%
2036-1804 (3840)
Invested
$567.77
Value
$556.48
PnL
-$11.29
Record
59%
44243-30611 (74854)
Invested
$60.79
Value
$66
PnL
+$5.21
Record
58%
27868-20503 (48371)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$52.66
Value
$58.51
PnL
+$4.39
Record
54%
55313-47351 (102664)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.