Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (86%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: US Sassuolo Calcio O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 14¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 75%
$3.7K
$2.7K
12.7¢ → 14.5¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4CTR | Overavg 12¢ | $576.48 | $2.4K | +$1.8K | 49% 1109-1140 (2249) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 14¢ | $345.99 | $1.2K | +$889.7 | 50% 32577-32115 (64692) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 14¢ | $13.37 | $13.85 | +$0.48 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 85¢ | $11.05 | $6.5 | -$4.55 | 59% 44229-30605 (74834) |
Invested
$576.48
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
49%
1109-1140 (2249)
Invested
$345.99
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$889.7
Record
50%
32577-32115 (64692)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.37
Value
$13.85
PnL
+$0.48
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
Invested
$11.05
Value
$6.5
PnL
-$4.55
Record
59%
44229-30605 (74834)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.