Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: US Sassuolo Calcio O/U 1.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $168 held · ended Oct 27

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$167.56

Combined PnL

-$602.75

Smart Money Entry

35.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$147.46

Total Shares215

Combined PnL+$19.45

Under4 traders

Total Value$20.1

Total Shares1,392

Combined PnL-$622.19

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 36¢	$48.6	$67.5	+$18.9	50% 6745-6755 (13500)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 90.9¢	$35.16	$36.39	+$1.23	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 71¢	$23.61	$25.18	+$1.57	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 94¢	$18.8	$16.5	-$2.3	77% 3044-929 (3973)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$15.9	$13.35	-$2.55	48% 4420-4876 (9296)
RO Rocky31CTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$599.63	$4.61	-$584.6	73% 1437-531 (1968)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$29.95	$2.14	-$27.81	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 54¢	$1.84	$1.89	+$0.05	55% 8036-6505 (14541)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$7.92	$0.01	-$7.24	76% 3880-1236 (5116)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$48.6

Value

$67.5

PnL

+$18.9

Record

50%

6745-6755 (13500)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$35.16

Value

$36.39

PnL

+$1.23

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$23.61

Value

$25.18

PnL

+$1.57

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$18.8

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$2.3

Record

77%

3044-929 (3973)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.9

Value

$13.35

PnL

-$2.55

Record

48%

4420-4876 (9296)

Rocky31CTR

Under

Invested

$599.63

Value

$4.61

PnL

-$584.6

Record

73%

1437-531 (1968)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.95

Value

$2.14

PnL

-$27.81

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$1.84

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

8036-6505 (14541)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.92

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$7.24

Record

76%

3880-1236 (5116)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.