Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: SS Lazio O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 46¢ · $500 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$499.63
-$7.03
48.7¢ → 45.5¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 48.7¢ | $191.7 | $179.27 | -$12.43 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 49.3¢ | $150.25 | $152.5 | +$2.25 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $91 | $94.79 | +$3.79 | 53% 5469-4814 (10283) |
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $40.8 | $40 | -$0.8 | 31% 706-1536 (2242) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $29.18 | $29.18 | +$0 | 49% 18399-18822 (37221) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $3.74 | $3.89 | +$0.16 | 57% 12909-9833 (22742) |
Invested
$191.7
Value
$179.27
PnL
-$12.43
Record
50%
32583-32122 (64705)
Invested
$150.25
Value
$152.5
PnL
+$2.25
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
Invested
$91
Value
$94.79
PnL
+$3.79
Record
53%
5469-4814 (10283)
Invested
$40.8
Value
$40
PnL
-$0.8
Record
31%
706-1536 (2242)
Invested
$29.18
Value
$29.18
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
18399-18822 (37221)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$3.89
PnL
+$0.16
Record
57%
12909-9833 (22742)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.